Category Archives: A Brigada das Minas

Ouro a atingir máximo histórico

O metal precioso está a subir pela oitava sessão consecutiva e fixou um novo máximo histórico, a beneficiar da procura de activos percepcionados como mais seguros.

O ouro para entrega imediata segue a valorizar 0,36% para os 1.573,30 dólares por onça, depois de ter chegado a avançar 0,70% para os 1.578,72 dólares por onça, o valor mais elevado de sempre. Este representa o oitavo dia de ganhos do metal amarelo que, neste período, acumula um ganho de 5,7%.

Já o contrato para entrega em Agosto aprecia 0,74% para os 1.573,80 dólares por onça, tendo chegado a subir mais de 1% para os 1.579,70 dólares por onça, um máximo histórico. Este activo avança há sete sessões, apreciando, no acumulado, mais de 6%.

A justificar o desempenho positivo do ouro nas últimas sessões tem estado a turbulência que se faz sentir nos mercados financeiros.

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Espelho de nós

Espelho de nós


“Todos têm aquilo que querem do mercado”
Ed Sekyota

Se tivesse que escolher a frase que mais me cativou ao longo dos vários anos que dedico aos mercados financeiros, esta seria sem dúvida a eleita. Franzi o sobrolho quando a li pela primeira vez, olhando para esta afirmação mais como uma tentativa de dizer algo surpreendente do que verdadeiro. No entanto, quanto mais conheço os mercados e a mente humana, mais concordo com esta frase e a considero genial na forma de caracterizar o papel de cada investidor perante o mercado. ( JN)

Stocks

Stocks of the Year

My Dear Golg 


During 2006, the best performances in precious metal stocks – among a selected but large group I am following – are:

1. Blue chips

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), with an astonishing jump from less than 20 to 41.24. Key explanation: strong earnings from LaRonde Mine in Quebec, Canada´s largest gold deposit in terms of reserves.

Click chart to enlarge
Chart courtesy of
http://stockcharts.com


2. Junior miners

Tara Gold (TRGD), with a thrilling walk from 0.05 all the way to 1.32! Key explanation: New discoveries and project development.

Click chart to enlarge
Chart courtesy of
http://stockcharts.com

The Secular Gold Bull

This chart shows our awesome secular gold bull to date, the proof of the pudding.  For about six years now, a secular time span, gold demand has exceeded gold supply driving up prices on balance.  If it was the other way around, if supply, including central bank selling, exceeded demand, this would be a downward-sloping bear trend.

 

 

Gold has climbed higher in US dollar terms for six years in a row now, with annual percentage gains noted on the time axis.  Bull to date the Ancient Metal of Kings is up 182% as of this past May.  Gold’s long-term support lines have held rock solid for its entire bull, running parallel with its strong upward-sloping 200-day moving average.  Gold has carved seven major higher interim highs and seven major higher interim lows, an unmistakable secular-bull fingerprint.

US dollar Index and Gold

Not surprisingly the mighty Great Bull market in gold began right around the dollar’s long-term top in 2001.  Gold’s awesome early ascent of the past few years has been scoffed at relentlessly by the mainstream Wall Street crowd, yet us early contrarians are already being blessed with rapidly multiplying riches by riding this exciting young bull market in gold.

US Dollar´s Secular Bear

This is the big strategic picture.  In the financial markets context is absolutely crucial and nothing can quite put current price movements into their proper context like seeing them within the prevailing secular, or long-term, trend.  In the dollar’s case, this long-term trend is indisputably down.  This powerful dollar bear market has been underway since the summer of 2001 and has yet to show any signs of abating.

This chart highlights the relentless final plunge of the fourth major downleg of this secular dollar bear and the subsequent fourth major bear-market rally.  These short-term tactical trends move within long-term strategic trends.  As you recall from above, all of the action on this entire short-term price chart is contained within the dollar’s long-term downtrend.  While not as important as strategic trends, tactical trends are still very valuable for speculators to follow.

Gold Bulls

The first important thing to note on this secular gold bull graph is the typical parabolic shape of a secular gold bull.  All secular bulls that ultimately culminate in bubbles exhibit this distinctive pattern of price increases continuously accelerating over time.  As this yellow parabola shows, this acceleration is almost imperceptible in the early years, picks up dramatically in the middle years, and is breathtaking in the final years.  This pattern was also witnessed in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 as well during their own recent secular bulls.

Don’t blame manipulation for gold’s

“While I believe it’s foolhardy to think that gold is manipulated each and every day (that’s what some seem to say whenever it’s down or has declined from higher prices), I do believe a group or groups has capped and is likely in the future to continue to cap or manipulate the gold price. But again, I urge you not to use manipulation as the only excuse gold is down on a particular day. There are many technical and fundamental reasons, and those who only see manipulation are not doing you any favors in being blind to other reasons. This, by no means, lessens my view on manipulation. I believe it occurs, but to say it is the only reason gold declines is a form of sour grapes.

“While we can still retest $610 to confirm it is indeed support, any thought that the recent decline was the end of the bull market should now be put to rest.”

You can find the Grandich Letter at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1162840118.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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